Estonia centre-right on course to win election

RNW, 6 March 2011

Eurozone newcomer Estonia holds a general election Sunday, with its centre-right government on course for a new term after steering the Baltic state out of a deep recession.

Opinion polls have given the two-party coalition of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip a clear lead over the left-leaning opposition, despite the latter's efforts to make political capital from the fallout of a biting austerity drive.

Ansip has been in office since a 2005 reshuffle, a year after the nation of 1.3 million joined the European Union.

In 2007, he was the first Estonian prime minister to win a general election since the republic regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 after five decades under Moscow's control.

He has been at the helm as Estonia swung from a breakneck boom to a breathtaking slump amid the global crisis and then back to recovery.

Estonia's economy shrank by 14.1 percent in 2009 -- one of the world's deepest recessions -- before expanding by 3.1 percent in 2010. This year, it is expected to grow by around 4.0 percent.

The government, which even before the crisis had a reputation for conservative fiscal policies that led to budget surpluses and the EU's lowest debt, began an austerity drive when the economy went off track.

A key aim was to ensure Estonia met criteria for adopting the euro. It did so on January 1.

Ansip's critics have accused him of glossing over social problems such as unemployment, which jumped from a record low of 4.0 percent on the eve of the crisis to a post-independence high of almost 20 percent in early 2010.

But the government underlines that it has fallen amid the recovery -- last week the rate was 10.3 percent.

Ansip's Reform Party and junior coalition ally the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union are set to muster 49-50 percent of the vote, opinion polls show.

On the left-leaning opposition side, the Centre Party's rating is 22-25 percent, and that of the Social Democrats, 13-16 percent.

The coalition is aiming for a majority in Estonia's 101-member parliament. It had 49 seats in the outgoing chamber after losing control in a 2009 revolt over a freeze on unemployment benefit hikes -- which then hampered its policy drive.

Polling stations open Sunday at 9:00 am (0700 GMT) and close at 8:00 pm (1800 GMT). Results are expected Sunday night.

A record 15 percent of the electorate cast ballots in advance via a secure Internet portal created in 2005. Estonia, known for its hi-tech sector, is the only nation in the world that uses e-voting in general elections.