guardian.co.uk,
Miriam Elder in Moscow, Sunday 25 September 2011
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| Dmitry Medvedev, left, is expected to replace Vladimir Putin as Russia’s prime minister. Photograph: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters |
The fallout
from Vladimir Putin's announcement that he plans to return to the Kremlin is
being felt throughout Russia, with a key liberal official indicating that he
plans to quit the government.
The finance
minister, Alexei Kudrin, a darling of the west because of his commitment to the
free market and fiscal conservatism, said he would refuse to serve under DmitryMedvedev, who is due to replace Putin as prime minister. His departure would
deal a severe blow to liberal elements inside the ruling regime.
"I do
not see myself in a new government," Kudrin said during a visit to
Washington. "The point is not that nobody has offered me the job; I think
that the disagreements I have [with Medvedev] will not allow me to join this
government."
The
reformist minister said disputes about spending were to blame and it was
unclear why he blamed Medvedev when Putin has the final say over the country's
economic path.
Although
Putin's return to the presidency was widely expected, the announcement, at a
congress of the ruling United Russia party on Saturday, caught many off guard –
even Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said in an interview: "We were
totally unprepared for what was announced. It was their bilateral decision –
and then they didn't alert anyone about it."
Others
expressed dismay. "There is no reason for happiness," tweeted Arkady
Dvorkovich, another liberal politician and economic adviser to Medvedev, as the
congress came to a close on Saturday.
The
prospect of two more terms for Putin exacerbating creeping social and economic
stagnation prompted comparisons with the long rule of Soviet leader Leonid
Brezhnev. Around 300 people went on a protest against the decision in central
Moscow.
Putin's
announcement that he planned to run for president in March's vote confirmed the
widely held view that he is Russia's foremost ruler. In recent years, he has
fashioned himself as a "national leader", and was referred to as such
several times at the party congress.
Medvedev's
political fate appeared less clear. The announcement of Putin's return turns
him into a lame duck. "He is the person we still have to call the
president of the country, but we already can't twist our tongues to do
it," wrote Moskovsky Komsomolets, the country's most popular tabloid. Medvedev
told the congress he would accept a post as prime minister.
Yet some
analysts speculated that Kudrin's departure from government signalled the
possibility that he would either become prime minister or move to a post inside
the Kremlin. Despite his liberal leanings, Kudrin remains an ally of Putin and
works to balance the hardline elements within the regime, known as siloviki.
"Definitely,
in this or that way, [Kudrin] will stay on the team," said Peskov.
Speaking in Washington, Kudrin said he disagreed with Medvedev's recent
approval of raising military spending to around £42bn, or 3% of gross domestic
product.
Yet Peskov
hinted that the problem ran deeper. Kudrin is an outspoken critic of higher
social spending, as Russia battles the disastrous effects of the financial
crisis. He has been struggling to prevent runaway spending as the Kremlin
enacts populist measures, such as raising pensions and keeping communal charges
low, in the runup to elections.
"His
approach is that we should live in accordance with our incomes and shouldn't
have extra social expenditures," Peskov said. "This is not what the
leadership is insisting on."
Putin's
popularity has plummeted during the country's financial distress. A recent poll
put his approval rating at 40% – a far cry from the 70% he regularly scored
during Russia's oil-fuelled boom years. Medvedev's rating stands at 33%,
according to the same VTsIOM poll. Yet in the absence of political competition
and free media, no opponents have emerged.
Russia's
leaders will now turn their attention to the parliamentary vote, hoping to keep
the constitutional majority held by United Russia. The party's rating has
fallen to 42%, according to VTsIOM, with the Communist party and far-right LDPR
gaining steam.
"There
is a great demand for change in society, although most of it is hidden,"
said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister under Putin and current
opposition leader. "Putin's name is contradictory with the very idea of
change – his inability to deliver the change that is in demand from a growing
number of people will lead to a major conflict in society."
With
discontent growing, the Kremlin had attempted to build a loyal liberal
opposition party that would bring in the disaffected middle class and boost
Kremlin support inside parliament in the event of disastrous results for United
Russia.
The Right
Cause party imploded this month with the departure of its leader, oligarch
Mikhail Prokhorov, who accused Kremlin ideologist Vladislav Surkov of
orchestrating his ousting. On Sunday Prokhorov was kicked off Medvedev's
modernisation commission, in an apparent retaliation.
The
leadership remains at a loss over how to boost United Russia's support.
Opposition activists such as anti-corruption crusader Alexey Navalny have
called on people to vote for anyone but the party on 4 December, forgoing the
idea of an election boycott.
Sergei
Naryshkin, a Putin ally and Medvedev's chief of staff, said Medvedev could
replace Putin as leader of United Russia. Milov said the move would be a
further step to protect Putin's image as Russia's saviour. Putin founded the
All-Russia People's Front this year in a bid to boost his support as United
Russia's fortunes fade.
"They
are the most popular political leaders and statesmen in the country," said
Peskov, referring to Putin and Medvedev, "and that's why they have the
luxury of taking decisions. They can afford it."
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