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| The protests in Russia over disputed elections continue |
We
understand. That's the message Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sent to the
pro-democracy movement when he announced new reforms. But will the protesters
be satisfied?
Russia is
holding its breath. How many protesters will come this time? The 50,000 that
have been approved by Moscow authorities? Or will it be up to 80,000 like two
weeks ago? Or perhaps far fewer?
The tension
ahead of this second major rally in the Russian capital is growing. While
western Europeans are gathering with their families for Christmas Eve, tens of
thousands of people are expected once again in Moscow to protest alleged fraud
in parliamentary elections earlier this month. More than 30,000 have already
said they are coming through social network sites like Facebook.
"It's
very important that we don't have fewer people at the protest in Sakharov
Avenue than we did two weeks ago at Bolotnaya Square," wrote the
opposition politician Ilya Yashin in a blog. The demonstration on December 10
was the biggest in Moscow in more than 10 years.
The
28-year-old Yashin wasn't able to be there because he had been arrested at
another demonstration and sentenced to 15 days in jail. He's now been freed and
has joined the organizers of this weekend's rally.
Medvedev's
carrot and Putin's whip
Yashin says
Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are playing good cop and bad cop.
"First Putin insults the demonstrators and now Medvedev is promising
political reforms," he said.
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| Medvedev has pledged reform, but experts are skeptical |
In a major
speech on Thursday, Medvedev promised reforms that would ease the Kremlin's
grip on power, including the reinstatement of elections for regional governors
and a simplification of the process to approve political parties and
presidential candidates. In his last state of the nation address to parliament
as president, Medvedev said he had heard the "call for change." It
remained unclear, however, when the changes would be put into place.
"In
his speech, Medvedev went further with democratic reforms than we've seen in
the past," said Jens Siegert, the head of the Moscow office of Germany's
Heinrich Böll Foundation. "This is clearly a reaction to the
protests."
Siegert
doubts, however, that these promises are much more than the lip service of a
lame duck president whose days in power are numbered.
Cornelius
Ochmann, an expert on Eastern Europe at the Bertelsmann Foundation in Berlin,
is also skeptical.
"Content-wise
Medvedev's speech is good, but it unfortunately comes too late," Ochmann
said. "Today almost no one was listening to him. Everyone is looking at
Putin."
No election
redo
Despite
Medvedev's promises, there's no indication that the protesters' main demand -
for elections to be held again - will be met. The central election commission
in Moscow said only the results in 21 of more than 90,000 polling stations
would be canceled due to violations.
According
to official results, United Russia, the party of Medvedev and Putin, won 50
percent of the vote and an absolute majority in parliament. The new parliament
met this week for its first session.
Now the
fight for the post of president has begun. Putin was the first candidate to
register to run in the election to be held on March 4. He, too, has hinted at
democratic reforms. Observers suspect that the Russian authorities will make
small concessions to the protesters with the hope that, eventually, their
endurance will wear out. Many have noted how calm the situation in Moscow has
been and that the Kremlin has allowed the demonstrations to take place without
the police beating up the protesters like they usually do: Even state
television, which usually tows the party line, has reported on the rallies.
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| Will Saturday's protests capitalize on the successes of the last few weeks? |
Many in
Moscow believe that the Kremlin is counting on the coming holidays to take the
wind out of the protesters' sails. Between New Year's Day and the Orthodox
Christmas in early January, many Russians will take vacation, which could
affect the number of people who are willing to demonstrate. Those in power also
seem to assume that the fighting within the protest movement will keep it from
taking off. Just ahead of Saturday's rally illegal recordings of telephone
conversations in which opposition leader Boris Nemtsov badmouths his
colleagues. He has since apologized, but says that the recordings were released
to undermine Saturday's protest. He's now hoping that the exact opposite
happens, and that even more people take to the streets.
Author: Roman Goncharenko / hf
Editor: Gabriel Borrud
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