Deutsche Welle, 16 March 2014
Sunday's
referendum in Crimea will see the region decide in favor or against secession
from Ukraine. While Russia fully supports this political maneuver, the West
sees it as a major breach of international law.
Crimea has
been part of Ukraine since 1954 and is an autonomous republic within the
country. Its population mostly consists of Ukrainians, Tatars and Russians,
with Russians making up the largest group. Due to its size, it would be easy
for the pro-Russian population to determine the outcome of the secession
referendum. Crimea's unification with Russia is therefore very likely.
In the days
- and even hours - ahead of voting, diplomatic channels were in overdrive. DW
looks at the parties involved in the conflict and their interests.
Shortly
after ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled to Russia, the Russian
government took matters on the Crimean peninsula into its own hands. Soldiers
without official national designations on their uniforms occupied all strategic
locations in Crimea - although due to its Black Sea fleet base near Sevastopol,
Russia already had a strong military presence in the region. Russian President
Vladimir Putin, however, has denied official deployment of Russian troops in
Crimea, referring to the patrolling forces as "local self-defense
units."
Russia to
"respect results of the referendum"
The
referendum on whether Crimea should unite with the Russian Federation has been
welcomed by Kremlin officials. However, the official statement is that Crimea's residents should decide about their own future. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov has reaffirmed that Russia would "respect the results of the
referendum." The financial cost of the vote has been mostly covered by
Russia, which injected around 1.5 million euros ($2.1 million) into the poll.
Putin has made it clear that, from the Russian perspective, the referendum does
not breach international law.
 |
| Putin called the troops in Crimea local self-defense units |
After the
change of government in Kyiv following months of protests, Crimea also underwent
political restructuring. Crimean Prime Minister Anatolii Mohyliov was dismissed
and replaced with Sergei Aksyonov. He is not recognized by the new Ukrainian
government but is recognized by Moscow as Crimea's leader.
Aksyonov
quickly got to work organizing a vote to decide on Crimea's future and called
on Russia for assistance. He supports Crimea's speedy secession and integration
into the Russian Federation. Putin and the Russian parliament have already
signaled their approval of the move.
Kyiv calls
vote illegitimate under Ukrainian law
Ukraine's
new government under Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and President Oleksandr
Turchynov declared the Crimean referendum a Kremlin-orchestrated
"farce." According to their statements, Kyiv is not prepared to treat
the outcome as legitimate. Yatsenyuk said Ukraine would never surrender in a
fight to maintain its state territory.
In
practice, however, the Ukrainian leaders' hands are tied. Russian forces are in
control of Crimea and Ukraine would probably not allow itself to enter into
armed conflict with Russia over Crimea.
The United
States has announced its refusal to recognize the referendum's outcome,
declaring the vote to be illegal according to international law. US President
Barack Obama has stated that the move would have harsh consequences, including
economic sanctions and a possible expulsion of Russia from the G8.
Security
Council veto
Russia has
largely isolated itself within the United Nations Security Council. On Saturday
(15.03.2014), the US put forward a resolution to the Council that declares the
Crimean referendum as illegal and emphasizes Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Russia had vetoed the resolution.
 |
| Lavrov, left, and Kerry couldn't reach an agreement on the Crimea referendum |
US
Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov,
on Friday to work on a diplomatic solution to the crisis. However, neither side
was ready to make any concessions. Kerry said the Crimean people's desire for
more favorable economic conditions could be met through improvements in the
region and respecting the locals' complaints.
EU unsure
what comes next
The
European Union has deemed Russia's actions contrary to international law and is
not prepared to recognize the outcome of the Crimean referendum. At the same
time, however, the EU does not have a clear-cut strategy in place to deal with
the vote. It has already imposed initial sanctions on Russia, but British Foreign
Secretary William Hague said tougher restrictive measures than the ones already
introduced by the EU are in order.
On the
other hand, Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, has voiced concerns
about the effects of possible sanctions, urging a cautious approach to the
issue. He confirmed, however, that the EU ministers would impose EU travel
restrictions on Russian politicians should Moscow not give in. He added that
the initial travel sanctions should only affect those who played a deciding role
in Crimea's split from Ukraine.
 |
| Merkel said any aggression in Crimea would affect German trade relations |
EU foreign
ministers are expected to meet on Monday to discuss the result of the
referendum and hash out a response.
Among EU
countries, Germany has the best relations with Russia and its opinion is more
likely to be acknowledged by Moscow than that of the other states. Strong
economic ties bind Germany and Russia: Germany imports most of its gas from
Russia and operates many businesses in the country.
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel has nevertheless made her view on Russia's role in
Crimea clear. Should Russia refuse to return to the path of "law and
cooperation," Merkel said, it would cause "massive" damage to
its political and economic interests.
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